A framework for the territorial landslide early warning system implementation: applications, lessons learnt and future challenges

As prioritized by the Sendai Framework, enhancing disaster preparedness is fundamental for the effective response, for taking actions in anticipation of events, and to ensure that the appropriate capacities are in place for effective response and recovery at all levels. Under this view early warning systems can be seen as irreplaceable tools to supporting the Civil Protection authorities in the preparedness and response phases. This is particularly relevant for the case of rainfall-induced slope failures that occur worldwide every year, claiming lives and causing severe economic disruption. Implementing early warning systems to forecast the occurrence of such geo-hydrological phenomena is difficult and challenging both from the scientific and technological side. Here we present a framework developed in Italy for the operational forecasting of rainfall induced landslides over large areas, which includes (i) models tools and technological supports for landslide prediction; (ii) algorithms for nowcasts and forecasts production using diversified inputs; (iii) operational early warning system procedures and technological supports for landslide forecasting; (iv) interfaces for the query and analysis of the early warning system outputs; (v) criteria, tools and technological supports for the validation of the early warning system outputs. The main lessons learned in the last two decades during the implementation of such framework are presented and discussed, highlighting the possible future challenges.