Vallási prognózis: a 2022-es népszámlálás eredményeinek előrejelzése és értelmezése • Religious Prognosis:Prediction and Interpretation of the 2022 Census Results

in the 2022 Hungarian census.Using data from four countries in the region (Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Slovakia) for the period 1991-2021, we conducted a time series analysis and estimated the evolution of the data for Hungary.A total of four scenarios were constructed.We validated our results with data from the other countries and found that the estimates based on thirty years of international data are the most accurate in these four countries.Based on Hungary's 2022 census data, estimates based on thirty and twenty years of international data were found to be the most accurate.We also estimated the number of adherents of the four largest churches in the country.Our results show that membership in the Roman Catholic Church has declined more than expected.