A Relational Theory of Jihadist Affiliate Behaviour: The Case of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State

Why do some AQ and IS affiliates fight one another while others avoid tension or even coordinate? While the extant theories of environment and power balancing provide inroads into such a puzzle, they overlook key relational factors shaping jihadist affiliate behaviour. In this article, I develop a relational theory of AQ-IS interactions, mapping out three avenues of pre-existing social networks: affiliate-civilian, AQ-IS affiliate and affiliate-unaffiliated rebels. Using several datasets, I examine AQ-IS relations in six regions from 2014 to 2018 with a crisp-set qualitative comparative analysis. Rival affiliates conflict less while relying on civilian support and cooperate more as off-shoots.