This analysis explores factors influencing local Islamist militant groups’ ties to global jihadist entities, suggesting implications for policy.
Why do some locally oriented Islamist militant groups affiliate with global jihadist networks such as al-Qaeda or the Islamic State while others do not? There have been few attempts to theorize answers to this important question and test them systematically. Given the importance of legitimacy for armed groups, I argue that when local Islamist militants run into a domestic legitimacy deficit, they try to substitute for it at the transnational level by affiliating with global networks. I test my argument using new data on ninety-seven groups, over 1998–2016. Groups with high local legitimacy, measured by social service provision, have a lower likelihood of affiliation. There is also evidence that groups of low legitimacy, measured by young age or kidnapping, are more likely to affiliate. The findings contribute to debates on the transnational nature of conflict and have important policy implications, shedding light on the dynamics governing global jihadist networks.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Nihad Aboud (2026) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: