Contrasting the potential range changes of Curculio davidi (Fairmaire) under future climate change in China

Abstract Curculio davidi (Fairmaire) is found in all chestnut producing regions of the world and is a major fruit pest of chestnuts. In this work, the MaxEnt software was adopted to simulate the potential distribution of C. davidi in China under 19 bioclimatic variables. The mean AUC of the model was 0.988. Meaning that the predictions were extremely accurate and reliable. Research has shown that the current C. davidi highly suitable area has been 65251 km2, accounting for 0.68% of the total area of China. The area of moderate suitable areas under different future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) increased by 22.12%-27.33% (2050s) and 17.80%-38.22% (2080s) compared with the existing distribution, and the area of highly suitable areas has been showing a trend of shrinking. The re-sults of the study showed that 6 climate factor variables, prec7, bio18, bio4, bio15, bio10, and prec5, contributed to the distribution of C. davidi. The jackknife test was used to determine the percentage contribution of six climatic factors affecting the distribution of C. davidi as prec7 (42.3%), bio18 (22.3%), bio4 (21.7%), bio15 (7.2%), bio10 (4.1%), prec5 (2.3%). This study has provided a reference for the scope and accuracy of pest control in C. davidi. It also offered a basis for how to take measures to control the spread of this pest as soon as possible under the back-ground of rapid climate change.