Towards Informed Disaster Management Planning: An Approach to Predict Future Urban Hazard Exposure

Considering the high spatio-temporal variability of urban transformations, methodologies, instruments, and detailed and updated information are urgently needed to support adequately informed spatial planning in defining preventive disaster management policies.The authors propose an innovative methodology to predict and assess future hazard exposure in urban areas by combining statistical, geospatial, and scenario-modeling analysis.The proposed methodology is applied to a small-medium-sized urban area by considering the hydraulic hazard to test its validity.The findings highlighted that providing planners and decision-makers with operation tools could be valuable for better risk-reduction planning.