Comparative Analysis of M-W Models and Estimation of Housing Demand in the Seoul Metropolitan Area

This study aims to derive a housing demand analysis model suitable for the changing population and household structure. To this end, the modified M-W linear model, modified M-W non-linear model, and modified M-W household-based model were estimated using the 2010 MDIS housing survey data. The models were tested against the total housing area in 2021 from the Population and Housing Census to validate them in an out-of-sample spirit. The models were also used to estimate the long-term housing demand in the Seoul metropolitan area up to 2030. The analysis results suggest that the household-based M-W model can be best used to estimate housing demand when the number of households is growing rapidly compared to the number of people and household characteristics are dominant. Still, the population and household structure are changing, so an appropriate housing demand analysis model should be used depending on the time.