Risk assessment of immersed tube tunnel engineering based on Bayesian method

This paper carried out risk assessment of the immersed tube tunnel engineering using the Bayesian networks. Firstly, based on expert survey data and records of construction risks in immersed tube tunnel engineering the fault tree is transformed into a systematic Bayesian network. Next, leveraging the computational advantages of the Bayesian method, the probability of occurrence of risk events in the immersed tube tunnel is linearly inferred, identifying the risk factors that require particular attention. Finally, it is proposed that when any non-root node event fails in the Bayesian network, the root node events should be controlled in order of decreasing posterior probability. This control method clarifies the approximate scope and quantity of key control targets, to some extent, conserving limited human, material, and financial resources. The evaluation results can provide a scientific basis for the subsequent risk control.