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October 12, 2025Monthly Weather Review

Is the Observational Record Since the Satellite Era Sufficient to Estimate the MJO Impact on Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill over the CONUS?

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Authors

CZCheng ZhengHKHyemi KimELEmerson LaJoie

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Overview

Observational data reveals MJO significantly affects subseasonal precipitation prediction skill, highlighting uncertainty.

Key Points

  • Prediction skill variation is influenced by the madden-julian oscillation, emphasizing the need for careful interpretation.
  • The heidke skill score illustrates substantial fluctuations in prediction skill across different periods linked to the MJO.
  • Statistical prediction models using CESM2-LE data show that the MJO's effects on skill are complex and not fully understood.
  • Uncertainty in MJO modulation often exceeds its actual influence, necessitating a cautious approach to operational forecasting.

Cite This Study

Zheng et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68ec384042a190b2c3519b3dhttps://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-25-0039.1
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