Land Use Dynamics and Ecosystem Service Trade-offs in China’s Terraced Landscapes

Abstract China’s terraced landscapes represent a critical integration of agricultural heritage and ecological functionality, providing vital ecosystem services (ESs) such as water yield, soil conservation, and carbon storage. Despite their ecological importance, the spatiotemporal dynamics of ES provision in terraced systems and their trade-off/synergy relationships remain inadequately quantified. Here we address this knowledge gap by (1) quantifying nationwide changes in terraced land use from 2018 to 2023, (2) evaluating the corresponding variations in key ESs, and (3) elucidating the trade-off and synergy relationships among these services to inform sustainable land management. Utilizing the InVEST model integrated with Landsat imagery, climate, and soil data, we reveal significant transformations in China’s terraces. Rice terraced area declined dramatically by 39.2% (91400 to 55600 km²), while dryland terraces expanded by 10.1% and woodland terraces surged by 104.2%.These land-use shifts led to only a marginal increase in overall water yield (211.6 to 218.1 mm/year), but a substantial rise in soil conservation (+ 18.5%, from1.57×10⁹ to 1.86×10⁹ t), and a moderate increase in carbon storage (+ 1.7%, from 2.96×10⁹ to 3.01×10⁹ t). Trade-offs among services overwhelmingly outweighed synergies, particularly between water yield and carbon storage, though strong regional disparities were evident. Notably, synergies prevailed across 72.5% of the semi-arid Loess Plateau, whereas trade-offs dominated in humid southern regions (e.g., 78.9% of the Sichuan Basin). These findings reveal how climate-mediated land-use dynamics shape multi-service interactions and highlight the need for region-specific governance to balance ecological restoration with water security in China’s terraced landscapes.