The adjustment of macroeconomic policies in the United States cannot be ignored for its global economic and social impact, especially the recent adjustment of tariff policies, which has also attracted the attention of scholars. The research focuses on the impact of US trade policies on China's economic growth, exports, and industrial structure. This paper uses trade data, PMI reports, and forecasts from institutions like the Federal Reserve, Reuters, and the Financial Times. Both quantitative data and qualitative evidence are combined: numbers show the direct hit on exports and GDP, while reports and analysis reveal how firms and policymakers respond. The results show that the July 2025 export surge was a short-term rush, while the real story is a sustained 22% drop in shipments to the U.S. The tariffs are estimated to shave 0.2 percentage points off Chinas growth, with small and medium exporters taking the hardest blow. At the same time, China is diversifying into ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, and pushing domestic consumption. Still, these measures cannot fully make up for U.S. demand. U.S. restrictions on semiconductors and critical tech are also forcing China into a faster but more expensive path toward self-reliance. Overall, the findings show that U.S. macro policies not only disrupt trade flows but also speed up Chinas structural shift.
Min Shi (Tue,) studied this question.