Burden of Non-Rheumatic Calcific Aortic Valve Disease in China from 1990 to 2021 and Projections to 2031: Insights from the Global Burden of Disease 2021

Abstract Background Non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease(nrCAVD) is one of the causes of cardiovascular disease-related deaths and poses a significant challenge to healthcare. Understanding the burden of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease is crucial for health policy formulation and healthcare resource allocation. This study aims to assess the burden, trends, and inequalities of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease in China and predict future trends. Methods Data on non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease-related Deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized Deaths rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and their average annual percentage change (AAPC) were obtained from the The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database. Subsequently, the burden of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease in 204 countries, including China, from 1990 to 2021 was analyzed, stratified by gender and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), and further projected to 2031. Results The number of cases of prevalence, incidence, Deaths, and DALYs of nrCAVD in China continued to increase from 1990 to 2021, with men having higher numbers than women in most indicators. Among all age groups, the number of cases was significantly higher in people aged 55 and above, especially in the 65–74 age group. The ASIRand age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) showed an upward trend, while the age-standardized Deaths rate (ASMR) and DALY rate showed a stable or downward trend. The incidence rate was positively correlated with SDI. The ASIR in China is expected to continue to rise in the next 10 years, and the ASMR in women will continue to decline. Conclusion The burden of nrCAVD in China continued to increase from 1990 to 2021, which is a health problem that cannot be ignored, and showed significant age and gender differences. In the next 10 years, the burden of nrCAVD in China will continue to increase. Effective and targeted strategies are needed to prevent and manage nrCAVD in this population to reduce the overall burden.