Why the study?
Recent trends in the burden of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease among adults aged 60 years and older, and projected trends up to 2041, needed exploration.
The absolute and age-standardized prevalence of non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, largely driven by population aging and diagnostic advancements, emphasizing a growing public health burden.
Background: This study aimed to explore the most recent trends in NRCAVD burden among adults aged 60 years and older and to further predict trends up to 2041. Methods: We estimated the age-standardized incidence (ASIR), prevalence (ASPR), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) (ASDALYsR) and death rates (ASDR) of NRCAVD in adults aged ≥60 years from 1990 to 2021 using data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study. Temporal trends were quantified using average annual percent change and projections to 2041 were made using the Nordpred model. Results: Globally, in 2021, NRCAVD affected 11.78 million older adults (ASPR: 1122.7/100,000), with 0.84 million new cases (ASIR: 77.3/100,000), resulting in 132,764 deaths (ASDR: 13.7/100,000) and an ASDALYsR of 182 per 100,000. From 1990 to 2021, global ASIR and ASPR increased significantly (22.1 % and 24.8 %, respectively), while ASDALYsR and ASDR declined. High-income regions exhibited the greatest disease burden, notably High-income North America and Western Europe. Marked sex-based differences existed, with males showing higher burden compared to females. Projections indicate that by 2041, the absolute number of cases will rise by 72.1 %. Conclusions: The global burden of NRCAVD in older adults is substantial and varies by age, gender, socio-demographic index, and region. Despite declining age-standardized rates, the absolute burden of NRCAVD will increase, highlighting the need for early screening and improved treatment access.
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