The Risk Assessment for Water Conveyance Channels in the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach)

Water conveyance channels, as critical components of water diversion projects, feature numerous structures, complex configurations, and intensive operational management requirements, making them vulnerable to multiple risks, such as extreme flooding, channel blockage, structural failures, and management deficiencies. To ensure an accurate assessment of the operational safety risk, this study proposes a comprehensive risk assessment framework that integrates risk probability and risk loss. The former is quantified using the Consequence Reverse Diffusion Method (CRDM), which systematically identifies and categorizes key factors of primary dike failure modes into four domains: hydrological characteristics, channel morphology, engineering structures, and operational management. The latter is assessed by integrating socioeconomic impacts, including population exposure, infrastructure investment, and industrial and agricultural production. A structured assessment framework is established through systematic indicator selection, justified weight assignment, and standardized scoring criteria. Application of the framework to Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project (Henan Reach) reveals that the risk probability across four segments falls within the (1, 3) range, indicating a generally low to moderate risk profile, while channel morphology shows greater spatial variability than hydrological, structural, and management indicators, driven by local differences in crossing structure density, sinuosity, and regime coefficients. Meanwhile, the segments along the Qingshui River face higher risk losses owing to their upstream location and large-scale water supply capacity, resulting in a relatively higher comprehensive risk level.