“Hamas is deterred” as wishful thinking: An analysis of how Israel empowered Hamas to attack Israel on October 7

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This analysis reveals how Israel's security assessment wrongly claimed 'Hamas is deterred', highlighting serious complacency.

The attack on October 7 was a strategic surprise for Israel, revealing a significant intelligence failure.
Israel's prior assessment declared 'Hamas is deterred', leading to complacency among military and political leaders.
The situation reflects a misinterpretation influenced by wishful thinking, contributing to a severe security lapse.
This complacency ultimately empowered Hamas, allowing them to execute their planned attack successfully.

Avner Barnea (2025) studied this question.

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