What does this research mean for the field?

Israel's October 7 intelligence failure was caused by an ideational cascade in which elite governing paradigms framing Hamas as manageable became institutionalized, biasing analysts to discount credible warnings. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine how and why intelligence organizations discount credible threat warnings during protracted conflicts, focusing on the cognitive and institutional mechanisms behind Israel's October 7 intelligence failure.

September 14, 2026Middle East PolicyOpen Access

Paradigm Lock‐In and Strategic Surprise: Explaining Israel's October 7 Intelligence Failure

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Authors

RSRuth Hanau SantiniUniversity of Naples - L'Orientale ANAndrea NovellisUniversity of Naples - L'Orientale

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Implication

Institutional case analysis reveals how elite governing paradigms bias threat assessments in intelligence agencies, indicating epistemic capture drives strategic surprise.

Key Points

To examine how and why intelligence organizations discount credible threat warnings during protracted conflicts, focusing on the cognitive and institutional mechanisms behind Israel's October 7 intelligence failure.
Applied a cognitive-cultural neo-institutionalist framework to trace how political paradigms institutionalize within military and intelligence hierarchies.
Analyzed the interactions between protracted conflict, organizational permeability, and technological overconfidence in discounting actionable warning signs.
Elite political framing that positioned Hamas as a manageable actor produced an ideational cascade that biased judgment across military intelligence.
Institutionalization of this governing paradigm caused epistemic capture, systematically pre-classifying and dismissing credible warning evidence before objective evaluation.

Cite This Study

Santini et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6aa7b3bf0926e14a848b2e65 https://doi.org/10.1111/mepo.70100

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Implication

Institutional case analysis reveals how elite governing paradigms bias threat assessments in intelligence agencies, indicating epistemic capture drives strategic surprise.

Paradigm Lock‐In and Strategic Surprise: Explaining Israel's October 7 Intelligence Failure

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Paradigm Lock‐In and Strategic Surprise: Explaining Israel's October 7 Intelligence Failure

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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