Analysis reveals that next-generation CMB and gravitational wave measurements may constrain inflation models, suggesting key discriminants for ongoing theories.
We present a comprehensive analysis of inflationary models in light of projected sensitivities from forthcoming CMB and gravitational wave experiments, incorporating data from recent ACT DR6, DESI DR2, CMB-S4, LiteBIRD, and SPHEREx. Focusing on precise predictions in the (nₛ, αₛ, βₛ) parameter space, we evaluate a broad class of inflationary scenarios -- including canonical single-field models, non-minimally coupled theories, and string-inspired constructions such as Starobinsky, Higgs, Hilltop, $α$-attractors, and D-brane models. Our results show that next-generation observations will sharply constrain the scale dependence of the scalar power spectrum, elevating αₛ and βₛ as key discriminants between large-field and small-field dynamics. Strikingly, several widely studied models -- such as quartic Hilltop inflation and specific DBI variants -- are forecast to be excluded at high significance. We further demonstrate that the combined measurement of βₛ and the field excursion $Δϕ$ offers a novel diagnostic of kinetic structure and UV sensitivity. These findings underscore the power of upcoming precision cosmology to probe the microphysical origin of inflation and decisively test broad classes of theoretical models.
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Choudhury et al. (2025) studied this question.
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