Forecasting the Impact of Climate Change on Tetraclinis articulata Distribution in the Mediterranean Using MaxEnt and GIS-Based Analysis

Climate change threatens Tetraclinis articulata, a Mediterranean plant endangered by habitat loss, logging, and aridification. This study used the MaxEnt model to analyze factors affecting its distribution under current and future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 to SSP5-8.5) for 2040–2100, highlighting its vulnerability to drought and urgent conservation needs. Results showed that: (a) the model demonstrated excellent predictive power with an AUC of 0.92; (b) the highly suitable habitat for T. articulata is projected to expand by 6.5%–6.7% (5.24–5.38 million km2) by 2100 under SSPs 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5, compared to current conditions (6.1%, 4.92 million km2); (c) the centroid of suitable habitats shifts from northwest Algeria (1.394° N, 33.538° E) to various locations under future climate scenarios: west Morocco (SSP1-2.6, −3.429° S, 33.588° E), east Tunisia (SSP2-4.5, 11.091° N, 32.501° E), northwest Morocco (SSP3-7.0, −1.947° S, 34.098° E), and southwest Morocco (SSP5-8.5, −2.985° S, 34.707° E); (d) key environmental variables influencing T. articulata distribution include annual precipitation (bio12, 41.7%), mean annual temperature (bio1, 27.9%), and precipitation during the driest month (bio14, 16.1%). This study concluded that climate change significantly influenced the distribution of T. articulata in the Mediterranean, highlighting the urgent need for conservation strategies to mitigate the risk of local extinction driven by both anthropogenic activities and climate impacts.