Modeling Habitat Suitability for Endemic Anthemis pedunculata subsp. pedunculata and Anthemis pedunculata subsp. atlantica in Mediterranean Region Using MaxEnt and GIS-Based Analysis

Climate change accelerates biodiversity loss, threatening ecosystems worldwide. Using predictive models, such as the maximum entropy model (Maxent), allows us to identify changes in species distribution and guide conservation strategies. This study aims to model the current and future distribution of Anthemis pedunculata subsp. Atlantica and Anthemis pedunculata subsp. pedunculata in Mediterranean regions through MaxEnt modeling with bioclimatic predictors. Using the MaxEnt algorithm, we combine bioclimatic variables and 49 occurrence locations of Anthemis pedunculata subsp. pedunculata and 13 occurrence locations of Anthemis pedunculata subsp. atlantica. The future distribution of the species is projected using MIROC6 model simulations under emission scenario SSP5-8.5 for 2030 and 2050. The current model predicted approximately 99,330,066 ha as a suitable habitat for Anthemis pedunculata subsp. pedunculata. Projections for the future range exhibited a gradual increase in the suitable area in 2030 by 144,365,562 ha and 2050 by 147,335,265 ha. The current model predicted approximately 201,179,880 ha as a suitable habitat for Anthemis pedunculata subsp. atlantica. Projections for the future range exhibited a gradual enhancement of the suitable area in 2030 by 213,898,608 ha and 2050 by 229,357,062. Our results provide further evidence of the negative impact of climate change on these endemic species and emphasize the importance of their conservation. This study provides information that could strengthen the protection of these species and identify potential protection areas.