Predicting potential distribution of Thymus atlanticus (Ball) Roussine an endemic species in Morocco using MaxEnt modeling

Although ecology is important for plant growth, survival, biodiversity and distribution. Climate is considered the most influential driver of spatial patterns in plant species, particularly those with limited distribution ranges. One of those species in Morocco is Thymus atlanticus a vulnerable aromatic and medicinal endemic species, only found in high mountains and threatened by overgrazing in Morocco. In this study, we used MaxEnt to model a current potential appropriate distribution to serve as a basis for its protection and preservation and as well as determine the main climatic factors that affect its geographical distribution. In our analysis, we employed a dataset comprising 32 field-based occurrence points and incorporated 20 environmental variables, consisting of 19 bioclimatic variables and one topographic variable (elevation), to project the potential distribution area of this particular species. In this prediction process, the area under curve (AUC) value was 0.995 and the standard deviation is 0.006. The response curves unveiled that this species exhibits a preference for habitats characterized by an annual mean temperature (Bio 1) ranging from 9 to 11 °C. Furthermore, precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) is optimal of T. atlanticus at 28 mm. However, the peak temperature seasonality (Bio 4) is 742C of V. T. atlanticus grows optimally at high elevation around 2300 m a.s.l. The potential distribution map of T. atlanticus shows the area predicted under least and unsuitable regions were 14,107 km2 and 688,970 km2, respectively. The remaining 4862 km2 and 2908 km2 areas were found moderately and highly suitable respectively. Thus, the suitability areas in Morocco of T. atlanticus are primarily concentrated in Atlas Mountains on all its chains: the High-Atlas, the Eastern Middle-Atlas and the Anti-Atlas. These results could be beneficial to developing adaptive approaches to management that enhance performance T. atlanticus protection and rehabilitation.