The Effects of crime rates and prior conviction types on the sentencing judgment of observers: A Moderated Mediation of Attribution Based on Kelly’s Covaration Model

This study investigated how the type of prior conviction and the prevalence of crime influence sentencing judgments, applying concepts from Kelley’s covariation model. A total of 247 adults participated in a 2 (crime rate: high vs. low) × 2 (prior conviction type: same vs. different) between-subjects design. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four conditions, read a sentencing scenario and national sexual crime rate information, and then responded to sentencing judgment questions. Results from two-way ANOVA and moderated mediation analyses showed a tendency for higher sentencing when the crime rate was low compared to when it was high. Furthermore, the indirect effect of crime rate on sentencing through attribution was significant. Specifically, when the defendant had a different-type prior conviction and the crime rate was high, observers were more likely to make external attributions, leading to lower sentencing judgments. These findings suggest that in citizen participation trials, the situational context of crime and attribution processes may jointly influence jurors’ sentencing decisions, highlighting their potential importance in legal judgments.