Effects of water system connectivity projects on the dynamics of land use and cover change and carbon storage: a case study of Jixi Wetland, China

Water system connectivity is a crucial component of water resource management and water conservancy construction. Using remote sensing and dynamic carbon density data with the InVEST model, this study quantified the impacts of land-use and climate factors on carbon storage during the water system connectivity process from 1988 to 2022. The main findings are: (i) Land-use structure evolved through three phases: change period dominated by forestland conversion, development period driven primarily by cultivated land conversion, and stabilization period. (ii) Carbon storage showed an overall decline-then-increase trend over 35 years, spatially characterized by a pattern of ‘high-value areas spreading from the center to the periphery’. (iii) Carbon storage changes were primarily driven by land use and cover change (LUCC), with climate factors having limited influence. Farming and construction activities were the main sources of carbon emissions during the change period, while afforestation boosted carbon sequestration in the development period. The in-depth analysis of spatiotemporal response characteristics of LUCC and carbon storage holds significant importance for the scientific assessment of water system connectivity project benefits, pinpointing specific pathways influencing the carbon sink value of Jixi Wetland Park, and thus guiding actual wetland ecological restoration and informing territorial spatial planning.