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November 19, 2025Geoscientific model developmentOpen Access

Evaluation of annual trends in carbon cycle variables simulated by CMIP6 Earth system models in China

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Authors

ZLZiyang LiLZLidong ZouAZAnzhou Zhao

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Overview

Evaluation reveals significant underestimation of carbon cycle variables in terrestrial ecosystems, indicating model improvements are needed.

Key Points

  • This research aims to systematically evaluate annual trends in carbon cycle variables in China as simulated by CMIP6 Earth System Models.
  • Assessed carbon cycle metrics including LAI, GPP, NPP, NEP, and LST from 12 CMIP6 Earth System Models.
  • Compared model simulations with satellite observations and CSIF data.
  • Analyzed interannual trends during the historical period.
  • Significant uncertainties noted in trends and interannual variability in LAI, NPP, and LST.
  • GPP and NEP trends were both lower than observed, with discrepancies noted.
  • CMIP6 ESMs showed widespread underestimation across China in various carbon cycle indicators.

Cite This Study

Li et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6924fed1c0ce034ddc350fe9https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-18-8703-2025
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