Immersive technologies and academic performance in online learning: A sequential mediation analysis

Despite rapid advancement in immersive technologies within online and distance learning environments, fundamental questions remain about their transformative mechanisms in higher education. This study develops and validates a sequential mediation model explaining how immersive technologies improve academic outcomes by integrating Technology Acceptance Model, Constructivist Learning Theory, Cognitive Load Theory, and Adaptive Learning Theory and quality education. Using cross-sectional design with stratified random sampling, data were collected from 245 Indonesian vocational higher education institutions representing five geographic regions. Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling analyzed hypothesized relationships through bootstrapping procedures with 5000 resamples. Results support all five hypotheses with varying effect magnitudes: Online & Distance Learning demonstrates large effect on Academic Performance (f2 = 0.463), Learning Experience shows medium effect on Immersive Technologies adoption (f2 = 0.286), while direct effects of Learning Experience and Immersive Technologies on Academic Performance show small but significant effects. The integrated model explains 71.6 % variance in Academic Performance and 57.8 % in Immersive Technologies, with strong predictive relevance (Q2 = 0.520, 0.359 respectively). Mediation analysis reveals Immersive Technologies partially mediate Learning Experience-Academic Performance relationship (VAF = 25.1 %, p = 0.038). Findings provide evidence-based guidance for educational technology implementation in resource-constrained environments, recommending prioritization of foundational digital infrastructure before advanced immersive technology investments while highlighting the importance of cultural adaptation in technology adoption processes, and product innovation. This research advances educational technology literature through empirical validation of multi-theoretical frameworks while offering practical implementation strategies for developing countries that consider collectivistic orientations, hierarchical learning preferences, and cultural adaptation needs.