Decoding Energy Poverty: How Political Stability, Economic Risks, and Green Innovation Shape Pakistan’s Future

Pakistan has faced persistent energy poverty (ENP) from 1990Q1 to 2022Q4, rooted in structural economic, institutional, and technological challenges. This study aims to examine the asymmetric and nonlinear effects of human capital (HC), economic growth (GDP), financial development (FD), economic risk (ECR), government stability (GOV), and patents of technology (PAT) on ENP, providing evidence‐based insights for policy targeting. Using quarterly data and employing quantile‐on‐quantile regression (QQR) and wavelet quantile correlation (WQC), we capture complex, quantile‐specific relationships that conventional mean‐based models overlook. The results reveal that a 1% increase in FD reduces ENP by up to 0.42% in lower ENP quantiles but increases it by 0.18%–0.25% in higher quantiles, indicating threshold effects. HC demonstrates a stronger alleviating impact at upper ENP quantiles (−0.55%) compared to lower quantiles (−0.21%). While moderate GDP growth reduces ENP by 0.31%–0.38%, very high growth levels have negligible or even adverse effects in the top ENP quantiles. GOV shows mixed impacts, with improvements linked to reductions of 0.29% in some quantiles but increases of 0.17% in others, suggesting that governance benefits require complementary reforms. PAT exerts a consistent long‐run mitigating effect, reducing ENP by 0.27%–0.46% across most quantiles, underscoring the importance of innovation‐led strategies. Overall, the study demonstrates that the drivers of ENP in Pakistan are context‐dependent, with their magnitude and direction varying across the ENP distribution. These findings highlight the necessity of tailored, multidimensional ENP interventions that account for heterogeneous socioeconomic conditions, and they hold policy relevance for other fragile or transition economies pursuing Sustainable Development Goal 7 (SDG 7).