The Post-2018 Ethio-Somaliland Relations and Factors Behind its Dynamics

This article examines post-2018 Ethio-Somaliland relations and some major factors shaping them. The study utilised a qualitative approach, involving key informant interviews, archival materials, and published documents. The findings indicate that the post-2018 Ethiopian government’s policy of re-unifying Somalia and of non-intervention in Somalia’s domestic affairs harmed Ethiopia’s previously friendly relations with Somaliland. Furthermore, tensions were increased by tripartite agreements between Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia; Ethiopia’s re-unifying attempts; and Ethiopia’s hosting of an anti-Somaliland clan meeting. However, a gradual modest shift in Ethiopian foreign policy towards the region and Somalia due to regional factors, as well as the focus placed on Ethiopian access to the sea, altered the trend. The shift reflects that external regional and global factors, next to domestic factors, influenced Ethiopia’s foreign policy, and the dynamics of Ethio-Somaliland relations.