Political Dynamics in the Horn of Africa and the Problem of the Ethiopia’s Access to the Sea

The article focuses on the evolution of approaches and the ways through which the issue of Ethiopia’s access to the sea which does poses both practical and identity-based dimensions, can be solved. Analyzing the steps made by Ethiopia in the XXI century in order to find a more suitable transit route, the authors the specific features of inter-state relations in the region. Among other aspects this list includes the dynamics of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea as well as between Ethiopia, Somalia and Djibouti. The article emphasizes that until 2018 external factors had limited the opportunities to diversify the access to the Indian Ocean for Ethiopia. Then it was “revolution of the Oromo” that the shift of balance not only within Ethiopia, but also in the whole region as a consequence. At the same time, the authors come to the conclusion that all these transformations failed to create conditions ample for the long-term normalization between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Ethiopia’s attempt to bet on the cooperation with unrecognized Somaliland resulted in a direct conflict with the Somali federal government. Thus, the later did its best to internationalize the conflict. Such a policy has made Ethiopia postpone its plans.