Vital rates and population trajectory of a declining eastern wild turkey population in southeastern Oklahoma

The eastern wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo silvestris ; hereafter, wild turkey) is a culturally and economically important game species in North America, yet populations have shown apparent declines across their distribution. Oklahoma, USA, has not been immune to declines, with several indices of abundance and recruitment (e.g., poults per female) trending downward in recent years. To investigate underlying demographic rates driving apparent declines in Oklahoma, we quantified current stage‐specific survival and reproductive rates. Our objective was to determine the current population trajectory using field‐derived vital rates and identify which demographic factors had the greatest influence on the asymptotic population growth rate (λ). In 2022 and 2023, we captured 28 and 33 female wild turkeys, respectively, during winter (January–March) using rocket nets in McCurtain County, Oklahoma. Overall annual survival was low (0.40; 95% CI: 0.27–0.59, n = 48), with higher survival in after‐second‐year females (0.55; 95% CI: 0.37–0.82) than second‐year females (0.30; 95% CI: 0.16–0.58); mammalian predation was the leading cause of mortality. Additionally, reproductive output was low, with only 17% of incubated nests (5 of 28) successfully hatching poults and no observed poults survived until independence. A stage‐structured projection matrix parameterized with our field‐derived estimates predicted a 45% annual population decline under current estimated demographic rates. Sensitivity and elasticity analyses corroborated previous work that determined adult female survival as the most influential vital rate driving population dynamics. However, the lack of any poults achieving independence indicates concern regarding the lack of recruitment. Our results underscore the importance of understanding and managing factors that influence adult female survival and reproduction to address wild turkey population declines. Our findings also highlight the necessity of sustained, long‐term monitoring to better understand population dynamics across time and variable environmental conditions. Additionally, while our work provides insights into a local population, there is a need for continued distribution‐wide efforts to identify broad‐scale drivers of population change.