Vegetation composition and structure influence female wild turkey survival during incubation

Wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) populations have experienced recent declines in some areas, particularly in the southeastern United States. Previous research has focused on vegetation effects on reproduction, especially how vegetative cover affects nest and brood survival. However, recent meta‐analyses have determined adult female survival is the most elastic vital rate, and contemporary decreases in female survival may help explain recent population declines. Female survival typically is lowest during nesting season, particularly when females are incubating eggs. There is limited information available on whether vegetation composition or structure around the nest influences incubating female survival. To address this knowledge gap, we monitored 377 turkey nests from 242 females and measured vegetation structure and composition at nest sites in Tennessee and Oklahoma, USA, from 2017–2024. We documented 40 instances of female mortality by predators during incubation. Using an analytical framework to jointly consider nest and female fate, we determined that woody vegetation increased nest survival but also led to increased risk of predation for the incubating female, likely because of decreased ability to escape predators. Conversely, increased herbaceous vegetation in Oklahoma and visual obstruction 0.5–1 m above ground in Tennessee promoted female survival, indicating both vegetation structure and composition play an important role in reducing predation risk for incubating females. We recommend managers interested in increasing turkey vital rates during incubation implement disturbance regimes that promote visual obstruction at least 0.5 m aboveground but limit extensive woody stem development.