Decreased female survival may help explain wild turkey population decline

Recent declines in wild turkey ( Meleagris gallopavo ) populations have prompted extensive research efforts and adjustments to state hunting regulations across the range of wild turkeys. Research comparing historical and modern vital rates is needed to identify demographic factors that may explain declines. Based on previously published matrix models, adult female wild turkey survival has the greatest effect on the intrinsic rate of growth. Thus, we hypothesized that changes in annual female survival may explain contemporary declines in populations if it has decreased concomitant with population declines. We searched peer‐reviewed literature, student theses and dissertations, and government reports for empirical estimates of annual female survival across the range of wild turkeys. We then used matrix models to evaluate population growth under observed survival rates. Of the 51 resulting estimates of annual female survival across all subspecies, most were ≥0.68 through 2004, but 15 out of 23 estimates post‐2004 were lower, consistent with observed declining trends in population trajectories. We used matrix models to illustrate that the observed change in annual female survival estimates indeed predicts a declining population trajectory, even when other important vital rates are at the upper end of the published range of process variation. If published annual female wild turkey survival estimates represent those experienced more broadly in populations, our meta‐analysis and matrix models indicate that decreases in survival may help explain declines. The causative factor(s) associated with the apparent decreases in female survival are unknown and little research has evaluated management strategies to increase annual female survival. Accordingly, we encourage wild turkey researchers to focus efforts on producing robust estimates of annual female survival, cause‐specific mortality, and rigorous evaluation of management strategies to improve annual female survival.