Factors influencing eastern wild turkey population growth in northeastern South Dakota

Eastern wild turkeys ( Meleagris gallopavo silvestris ) in northeastern South Dakota, USA, appeared to be expanding soon after reintroduction in the 1990s. However, recent hunter success trends suggest a population decline in the region. While the cause of the apparent decline was unclear, out of an abundance of caution managers closed the fall either‐sex hunting season throughout much of the region in 2014. An investigation into factors driving wild turkey population growth within northeastern South Dakota was needed to determine the most effective management strategies for increasing abundance. We incorporated age‐class specific estimates of female survival and lower‐level reproductive parameters into a female‐only, 2‐stage pre‐breeding birth‐pulse model to project the population growth rate. Additionally, we performed perturbation analyses, including a life‐stage simulation analysis, and simulated variation in each vital rate to assess effects of changes in demographic parameters on population growth. The finite rate of change indicates this population was declining‐to‐stable (λ = 0.804; 95% CI = 0.597, 1.006). Perturbation analyses indicate population growth was most greatly affected by changes in female survival; however, simulated variations suggest that low poult survival may be limiting population growth as well. Management interventions that simultaneously improve female and poult survival, such as increasing availability of brood‐rearing cover, have the greatest likelihood of achieving population growth and improving hunting opportunities in the region.