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December 8, 2025Blood

Projecting non Hodgkin lymphoma mortality for young adults in the United States(2024-2040):a national population-based modeling study

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Authors

FKFiqe KhanMFMuhammad Fahad

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Overview

National modeling forecasts mortality trends of non-Hodgkin lymphoma in young adults, highlighting racial disparities and geographic factors.

Key Points

  • This research aims to project non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality trends for young adults in the U.S. through 2040.
  • Utilized data from CDC WONDER (1999-2023) using ICD 10 codes to analyze NHL mortality rates.
  • Age-adjusted mortality rates for individuals aged 15-45 were calculated and stratified by sex, race, and geography.
  • An ARIMA model was constructed using Python 3 to forecast future trends.
  • Projected NHL AAMRs for young adults to stabilize between 0.49 to 0.56 per 100,000 from 2024 to 2040.
  • Gender disparity in mortality is expected to increase, with male rates rising by 22.6% and female rates declining by 43.3%.
  • Racial disparities show modest improvement, with Black populations experiencing a minor reduction in mortality rates.

Cite This Study

Khan et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69362f7f4fa91c937236e5e1https://doi.org/10.1182/blood-2025-8073
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  4. 4Non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality disparities across different sexes, races, and geographic locations2024 · 4 citations
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