The development of deep coalbed methane is hindered by the strong heterogeneity of coal mechanical properties and complex hydraulic fracturing behavior. To identify the key factors controlling fracture geometry and permeability enhancement, this study developed a thermo-hydro-mechanical-damage coupled model within a COMSOL Multiphysics 6.3-MATLAB R2022b co-simulation framework, incorporating a Weibull random field to characterize mechanical heterogeneity. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates that tensile strength is the predominant factor governing both the fracturing damage zone and permeability-enhanced area, with its damage area extreme difference (10.094) and coefficient of variation (0.85) significantly surpassing those of other parameters. Poisson’s ratio and elastic modulus emerge as key secondary parameters, while compressive strength shows the lowest sensitivity. The parametric influences exhibit distinct patterns: tensile strength shows a strong negative correlation with damage and permeability-enhanced areas (up to 85% reduction), whereas the maximum permeability enhancement rate follows a non-monotonic trend, peaking at 215 when tensile strength reaches 3.33 MPa. Compressive strength minimally affects the damage area (~15%) but steadily improves the maximum permeability enhancement rate (7.5% increase). Elastic modulus exhibits an optimal value (8.93 GPa) for maximizing damage area, while negatively correlating with maximum permeability enhancement rate (9.1% decrease). Fracture morphology is differentially controlled by multiple parameters: low compressive strength promotes fracture deflection and branching, elastic modulus regulates fracture network complexity, and low Poisson’s ratio enhances coal brittleness to effectively activate natural fractures, thereby facilitating complex fracture network formation.
Wang et al. (Sun,) studied this question.