Hydro–Mechanical Seepage Characteristics and Composite Permeability Modeling of Post-Peak Fractured Coal

Fractured coal in the residual-strength stage is a primary medium for gas migration and drainage in deep mining areas. To investigate the hydro–mechanical seepage response of post-peak fractured coal under constant-pressure-difference conditions, triaxial CO2 seepage tests were conducted on coal specimens collected from the Xinyuan Coal Mine. A Weibull-based damage constitutive model was established to characterize the confining-pressure-induced hysteresis in the damage-evolution path. The flow-rate evolution and Reynolds number analysis indicated that gas flow remained within the linear Darcy regime. A controlled-variable analysis was used to examine the competing effects governing permeability evolution. Mechanical compaction induced an exponential decrease in permeability, whereas the decrease in permeability with increasing pore pressure was interpreted, within the proposed model framework, as the combined effect of possible adsorption-induced matrix swelling and weakened gas slippage. To address the limitations of conventional constant-slip-factor models, a pressure-dependent slip modulation coefficient was introduced into a composite permeability equation incorporating effective stress, adsorption-related deformation, and dynamic gas slippage. Global nonlinear fitting yielded R2 = 0.97 and an RMSE of 0.1909, with the residuals generally distributed around zero, supporting the fitting reliability of the model within the investigated stress–pressure range. Response-surface analysis identified mechanical compaction as the dominant controlling mechanism, while adsorption-related deformation and gas slippage acted as secondary correction mechanisms. The proposed framework provides a quantitative basis for distinguishing the mechanical and fluid-related effects governing permeability evolution in post-peak fractured coal.