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This study aims to evaluate the economic implications of the USA's trade weaponization through various scenario analyses.

Global impact of weaponizing trade: scenarios of USA first, protectionism policy and trade war

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This study aims to evaluate the economic implications of the USA's trade weaponization through various scenario analyses.
Analyzed four trade policy scenarios related to the 2024 presidential campaign proposal.
Utilized a multi-country multi-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.
Sample included 50 countries and regions across 15 aggregated industries.
Integrated non-log-linear input-output linkages to assess trade impacts.
USA may achieve net gains from higher tariffs but incurs economic costs due to retaliatory measures from China and others.
Significant reduction in trade share between the USA and China due to trade wars leads to trade diversion.
Global supply chains show resilience by adapting and redirecting trade in response to geopolitical tensions.

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This analysis demonstrates the economic impacts of US trade weaponization in global trade, suggesting policy adjustments are needed.

Dong et al. (2026) studied this question.

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