Accelerated Emissions Reductions and Carbon Risk Management in Australian Commercial Buildings: Policy and Technology Perspectives

Counterintuitively, carbon risks—including investments in net-zero emissions-enabling technologies, legacy assets, insurance costs, and regulatory and compliance expenses—can be managed through rapid decarbonisation, as the built environment sector prepares for a transition to a low-carbon economy. This paper uses a bottom-up approach to net-zero emissions modelling to discuss an accelerated emissions reduction pathway while targeting both net-zero operational and embodied carbon emissions for commercial buildings. It also explores the link between built environment-related policy frameworks and technological advancements aimed at decarbonising commercial buildings, along with an initial effort to improve their energy resilience. For the commercial building archetype, achieving the net-zero operational emissions goal by 2035 appears practical, as energy intensity can be reduced sharply from around 120 kWh/m2 to nearly 75 kWh/m2 between 2025 and 2035. However, achieving net-zero embodied emissions appears practically challenging, as concurrent policies are at early stages, navigating the embodied carbon emissions data, reporting, and disclosure aspects. Regulatory mechanisms that require the disclosure of both embodied emissions data and actions and progress aligned with the dedicated targets and caps allocated to the real estate sector can assist commercial buildings in delivering on the whole-of-life net-zero emissions targets and commitments.