Nonlinear Dynamics of AI Investment and Economic Growth in Germany: Evidence from a NARDL Approach

This study aims to examine the impacts of AI investment on economic growth, while controlling for labor force participation and gross fixed capital formation in Germany. The analysis is based on data collected on the state of economic development in Germany from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The study used a nonlinear ARDL bounds approach for these investigations. The outcomes clearly reveal that positive shocks to labor force participation and investment in AI significantly enhance economic growth (GDP) in Germany, whereas a positive shock to gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) has no considerable effect on economic growth. Likewise, negative shocks to gross fixed capital formation and AI investment increase GDP growth. Negative shock to the labor force reduces GDP growth. Recommendations are made that Germany must maintain its measured approach while offering long-term commitment. More spectacular AI expenditure increases are not required; prioritize steadiness and integration. Establish long-time-horizon AI development partnerships between government, universities, and industry with stable funding streams on long-term horizons. The fragile link between traditional capital formation and growth means that Germany needs to redefine productive investment.