Incorporating Awareness, Misinformation and Optimal Control in a Model of SARS-CoV-2

The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic posed devastating effects on public health, and there is growing concern about the proliferation of misinformation and the role awareness plays in altering the dynamics of an epidemic. We formulate an SEIR-type model of SARS-CoV-2 with three susceptible compartments, consisting of individuals who are unaware, aware and misinformed. The media-dependent reproduction number of our model is computed, and the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the uniform persistence of SARS-CoV-2 are established. Unknown parameter values of our model are estimated, using data on the cumulative number of cases of symptomatic infections humans. Numerical simulations suggest a decrease in prevalence when susceptible humans transition from misinformed to aware humans, and when aware susceptible humans send media-related messages on the spread and control of SARS-CoV-2. Furthermore, there is an increase in the media-dependent reproduction number with an increase in misinformation. Finally, an optimal control of awareness and misinformation problem is formulated and analyzed. The optimal control results suggest that awareness and adherence to control measures, as well as the enhancement of media intensity are vital in the reducing the prevalence within the population.These results highlight the role of awareness and misinformation in disease dynamics.