Analysis of prospects for the development of regional exports in the context of sanctions

Foreign trade continues to be one of the most important areas of Russia's economic activity even under sanctions, as the country makes a significant contribution to the global supply of fuel and energy resources, food and agricultural raw materials. Taking into account the different economic specialization of the country's subjects, the degree of negative impact of sanctions on the regions turned out to be differentiated, and foreign trade turnover decreased to the greatest extent in those where the profile of activity corresponds to the sanctions lists. The purpose of this work is to analyze the prospects for the development of regional exports in the context of sanctions on the example of the Central Federal District regions. The study evaluates the relationship between the level of economic development of the Central Federal District regions and the state of exports in 2017-2021, and based on the opinions of experts, a conclusion is drawn about the future prospects for the development of the situation. The recession caused by the first period of economic sanctions was overcome by 2018, as a result of which the country's foreign trade turnover recovered. However, the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and the forced suspension of industrial and economic activities had a negative impact on foreign trade, contributing to a decrease in both exports and imports. At the same time, the coronavirus had only a short-term negative impact on foreign trade activities, and already in 2021 there was a positive trend. An assessment of the relationship between the level of economic development of regions and the state of exports in them showed the presence of a close stable correlation, however, over time, there is a decrease in the relationship between these indicators, which suggests that the political factor is increasingly coming to the fore. In the near future, we should expect a further decrease in the relationship between the level of economic development of the regions and the state of their exports. At the same time, those regions that were focused on trade with EU countries will suffer the most from sanctions.