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Explore the risks associated with using prediction models based on observational data for treatment decisions.

February 9, 2026Open Access

The Risks of Risk Assessment: Causal Blind Spots When Using Prediction Models for Treatment Decisions.

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This article discusses causal blind spots affecting treatment decisions in prediction models, indicating potential misinterpretation risks.

Explore the risks associated with using prediction models based on observational data for treatment decisions.
Identified causal blind spots in three common prediction model approaches.
Reviewed real examples illustrating misinterpretations of risk from prediction models.
Discussed the roles of confounding, selection, and mediation in model development.
Highlighted how earlier treatments can lead to misinterpretation of risk assessments.
Found that ignoring treatment in models may result in misleading predictions.
Advocated for clearer communication of model limitations and intended target populations.

Geloven et al. (2025) studied this question.

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This article discusses causal blind spots affecting treatment decisions in prediction models, indicating potential misinterpretation risks.