Operationalizing Resilience in Critical Logistics Infrastructures: A Reliability-Based Decision Support System Grounded in Eurocode Standards

This paper develops a reliability-based Decision Support System (DSS) for logistics networks, grounded in the Eurocode EN 1990 and Recommendations for Maritime Works ROM 0.0 framework. The DSS defines logistics-specific limit states (i.e., operational failure thresholds for the overall network) and computes annual exceedance probabilities through a multi-hazard fault-tree model. Its contribution is conceptual and regulatory: it transfers structural reliability principles to system-level assessment, generating auditable, norm-referenced indicators aligned with the EU Critical Entities Resilience Directive (CER) and the Network and Information Security Directive (NIS2). A central result is the Criticality Flip: Systemic vulnerability does not decline monotonically with hub density. Instead, risk shifts non-linearly between gateways and inland integrators, yielding a narrow operating range where the reliability margin (β) is maximized and annual limit-state exceedance is minimized. Beyond this range, additional hubs may provide limited—or even adverse—reliability improvement. The system operates as a compliance audit tool rather than a simulation engine: it evaluates whether a given network configuration meets declared reliability thresholds under multi-hazard scenarios, using standardized input formats and static topology. To support strategic decision-making, the DSS provides normalized and reproducible compliance indicators—such as annual limit-state exceedance probabilities and the associated reliability margin (β) referenced to declared thresholds—supporting cross-network benchmarking under CER and NIS2 constraints within an engineering reliability framework.