The effects of climate change water dependency and policy solutions on food security in Egypt

This study investigates the dynamic relationships between Egypt’s Food Security Indicator and climate change, political stability, renewable energy use, population growth, share of water from the Nile River, and agricultural productivity from 1990 to 2023. Employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) frameworks, Strong persistence in food security, immediate negative consequences of climate change, and notable positive contributions from renewable energy and agricultural production are all evident in short-term results. While Nile water reliance is advantageous in the short term, population increase puts negative pressure. Over time, food security is negatively impacted by climate change and reliance on Nile water (caused by systemic inefficiencies), although agricultural productivity and renewable energy continue to be significant positive drivers. Granger causality shows that there are reciprocal relationships between food security, agricultural production, and renewable energy. Accelerating the adoption of renewable energy, improving climate-resilient agriculture, restructuring Nile water administration to address inefficiencies and over-extraction, increasing agricultural productivity, and combining population management with resource allocation are among the policy priorities.