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February 20, 2026American Journal of Political Science

Abortion policy preferences are structured, stable, and consequential

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Authors

NHNouria HernandezMLMackenzie LockhartAGAlan S. Gerber

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Overview

Panel data reveals stable abortion policy preferences predict voting behavior in Americans, suggesting significant political implications.

Key Points

  • This research aims to investigate how structured and stable abortion policy preferences influence political behavior in the United States.
  • Utilized a large-scale panel dataset of approximately 130,000 Americans.
  • Applied diagnostics including coherence, stability, and changes in vote choice.
  • Analyzed abortion policy preferences collected before the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade decision.
  • Abortion policy preferences demonstrated logical coherence across different reasons for seeking an abortion.
  • Preferences showed high stability over time, more than personality traits.
  • Found that abortion preferences predicted voting behavior shifts between the years 2020 and 2024.

Cite This Study

Hernandez et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6997fa80ad1d9b11b3453b09https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.70036
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