Determinants of Beef Trade Between the EU and South America and the Implications of the EU–Mercosur Agreement for the European Beef Sector

This study aimed to identify changes in beef trade between the European Union and South American countries and to assess the potential economic impact of implementing the EU–Mercosur agreement on the beef market. The research problem asked: How might trade liberalisation under the EU–Mercosur agreement affect the volume, structure, and competitiveness of the beef market between the EU and Mercosur countries? The research used data on beef production, import, export, and consumption in the European Union and South America. The detailed analysis covered the years 2010–2024. In addition, based on USDA data, a forecast of beef production in the EU and Mercosur countries up to 2030 was prepared. The analyses employed descriptive and indicator methods, Spearman’s rank correlation analysis, and the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) model. The results indicate that beef production is increasing in the Mercosur countries and declining in the European Union. The ARDL models showed that beef trade depends on previous production and demand, and imports to the EU respond to changes in these areas with a delay. Increasing the tariff quota for beef imports from the Mercosur countries to the EU at a reduced customs rate may increase the share of this meat in the EU market. Preferential trade conditions raise concerns among EU producers, who must comply with stricter environmental standards and higher production costs, while less restrictive practices are applied in Mercosur countries. As a result, European agriculture, especially in Poland, may become less competitive, which calls for support mechanisms and further negotiations on sustainable production.