D4.2 - Theories of change and influence pathways of forest- related public and private regulations

This report first analyzes the designed and expected theories of change of key policies and governance mechanisms regulating legal and/or sustainable forest and ecosystem-risk commodity supply chains. This is based on an analysis of public and private regulations’ goals, degree of compulsion, role of state and non-state actors, and designed pathways of influence on target groups. Second, the main intervention logics, understood as theories of policy and behavior change, are unpacked and the interactions between dominant and less dominant pathways of influence are assessed.In short, this report shows that public policies and private governance mechanisms at the international level, at the EU, and the national level in Brazil, Cameroon, and Gabon regulating forest and ecosystem-risk commodity supply chains rely on a combination of legally binding and non-binding intervention logics. We identified a dominant intervention logic such as (1.) rules or (2.) norms & discourses or (3.) markets or (4.) information & resources within each public policy and private governance mechanism. At the same time, the dominant intervention logics of most public and private instruments are (1.) rules and/or (3.) markets. However, the intervention logics of the analyzed public and private regulation often compete among each other, while a positive transformative impact would strongly rely on successfully implementing designed synergies and avoid contradictions with other intervention logics within the same instrument or other instruments.