Bayesian Hierarchical Model Evaluation of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Kenya,

The study aims to evaluate off-grid communities systems in Kenya by assessing their cost-effectiveness. A comprehensive Bayesian hierarchical model will be employed, incorporating data from various off-grid communities across Kenya. Uncertainty quantification will be performed using credible intervals for cost-effectiveness metrics. The analysis revealed significant variability in the cost-effectiveness of different systems, with some demonstrating substantial savings over traditional grid-connected solutions. Bayesian hierarchical models provide a nuanced understanding of system performance and cost-efficiency across diverse off-grid communities in Kenya. Policy recommendations should favour the adoption of systems with demonstrated cost-effectiveness to enhance sustainability and reduce energy poverty. The empirical specification follows Y=β₀+β^ X+ε, and inference is reported with uncertainty-aware statistical criteria.