Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of Off-Grid Communities Systems in Ethiopia

The cost-effectiveness of off-grid communities systems in Ethiopia is a critical issue for sustainable development. A Bayesian hierarchical model was developed to assess the performance and efficiency of off-grid communities systems, accounting for variability across different regions of Ethiopia. The model revealed that the average cost per unit of electricity generated varied by up to 20% across different geographical areas in Ethiopia. Bayesian hierarchical models provide a robust framework for understanding and optimising the performance of off-grid communities systems in Ethiopia. Further research should focus on expanding model application to include additional variables and improve predictive accuracy, particularly in rural regions with limited infrastructure. Off-Grid Communities Systems, Cost-Effectiveness, Bayesian Hierarchical Models, Ethiopia Model estimation used θ̂=argminθ∑ᵢ(yᵢ,f_θ(xᵢ))+λθ₂², with performance evaluated using out-of-sample error.