What question did this study set out to answer?

To analyze the challenges facing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and propose future scenarios.

What Future for the NPT?: Scenarios for the Treaty Going Forward

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This article examines challenges to nuclear treaty legitimacy, indicating potential future scenarios for global security.

To analyze the challenges facing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and propose future scenarios.
Critical analysis of liberal institutionalism and international regime theory.
Identification of seven structural challenges to the NPT.
Development of scenario-based projections for the next ten and twenty years.
The NPT effectively limits nuclear proliferation but faces significant legitimacy challenges.
Structural issues include stagnation in the disarmament agenda and erosion of verification mechanisms.
Potential future scenarios include incremental reform, deeper fragmentation, or consolidation of a multipolar nuclear order.

Manuel Herrera (2026) studied this question.

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