Mosul, 2014 – the rise of ISIS

What was known about the threat posed by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) prior to the establishment of its so-called Caliphate? This chapter delves into this question, evaluating France’s ability to anticipate the ascent of ISIS to power. It reconstructs the knowledge of this threat within the French intelligence and broader foreign policy community, when such knowledge was obtained, and how this affected the French policy position. In doing so it offers an assessment of the effectiveness of the French strategic and tactical warning mechanisms concerning this threat. Additionally, it identifies potential lessons that can be learned from this case.