Importers, Exporters, and Job Creation: A 30-Year View to Assess Implications of the 2025 US Tariff Actions

This paper describes traders’ contribution to US manufacturing jobs over three decades, providing a broader context to assess impacts of the 2025 US import tariff increases. Traders employ 84 percent of manufacturing workers. Traders exhibit higher net job creation rates than nontraders, and higher imported input use correlates with higher job growth among traders. Recent survey data indicate declining manufacturing employment and performance since the tariff implementation. Traders’ significant contribution to manufacturing job growth coupled with manufacturers’ recent experiences suggests that achieving industrial growth through tariff increases is complicated in a globally integrated manufacturing sector.